2008 Woodie Awards
Unlocking the Secrets of the "LOT" er "E"
Is there a magical formula for winning the Florida Lottery? One writer crunches the numbers.
Tyro Ne-Tsa-Cas
Issue date: 4/15/05 Section: Opinions
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The document explained about the Lottery, from its inception through the jackpot winners to date and included a history of the lottery's contributions to the Florida education budget. It also presented the Lottery's internal workings: a description of the sales process of tickets to the public, calculations of the jackpots, estimated overhead cost, vendor fees, and how many cents of each dollar went to the jackpot, advertising, vendors, etc.
My objective was to see if there was any way to "beat the system," if money were no object and time was unlimited - what would be the process to produce a guaranteed jackpot winner.
My initial thought - buy enough tickets to ensure that I would win the jackpot. To ensure a jackpot (probability of occurrence =100%), I would need to procure one ticket for each possible number combination. Hmm, how many tickets would that be?
Recalling my statistics coursework while an undergraduate, I realized in the last 25 years I'd forgotten most of it. So I went to Google "and typed in what I did remember on this subject: combinations and permutations." Several hits later I ended up on http://www.wcrl.ars.usda.gov/cec/java/comb.htm.
Adapting the JAVA example to my problem I arrived at:
= 22,957,480 combinations, so $22,957,480 in ticket purchases!
Even if I could finance purchasing one $1 ticket of every possible combination, thereby guaranteeing a winning jackpot number, there are still two major realities to be considered. But imagine walking into a local zippy mart and asking for $22,957,480 of lottery tickets, heh-heh.
The first thing is that other people are playing too - grandmas in Boca, maintenance men in Lakeland, fishermen in Ft. Walton, hookers in Tampa, college students in Winter Park, etc. One or more may be potential winners as well.
The second and most important consideration is that the state of Florida splits the weekly "take" 50/50 between the jackpot and the Lottery system.
Plus, other people are playing too.
Ok, well ... that's good. If I'm putting up 22,957,480.00 semoleans then they can kick in a few too! The chance of me having the winning ticket will be 100%. The only rub could be if one of the other players bucks the astronomical odds and their ticket is also a winner. That would mean if Granny Irma in Boca picked the winning number that I also have - then we would split the pot 50/50.
What are the consequences of others splitting "my" pot with me? Granny Irma purchases a $1.00 ticket and I purchase $22,957,480.00 worth of tickets. The "non-winners" purchase $2,042,519 (nice round numbers here - it's my scenario).
The revenue grand total is $25,000,000.00 (22,957,480 + 2,042,519 + 1 tickets at $1 each). First, the state puts 50% of the revenue into the jackpot. Granny Irma and I split $12,500,000 - $6,250,000 each (pre-Fed tax) paid out over 30 years, but much less if the winnings are taken up front in one payment.
I, one the other hand, want the full harvest of my labors ASAP. Sensing Hubbert's Curve has peaked within the last 60 months and we're sliding along the "backside," preparations for my future seem prudent. (In terms of the peak, that's the only thing, you don't know if you're near the summit until you're already on the way down. Thank goodness it's not Hubbert's Precipice!)
My plan is to immediately acquire as much fiat currency as possible and then begin liquidating the "dead presidents on colorful cotton" for useable goods/services. Not unlike Ted Turner, moving from Infotainment into real estate for bison-growing (approximately 2 million acres for 40,000 head). Bison - the other red meat. Hey, they're environmentally friendly and everybody's gotta eat!
See http://www.tedturner.com/enterprises_properties.html.
Back to my scheme. So far I have gotten back $6,250,000.00 on my investment and only need $16,707,480 more to break even. A couple of problems still remain. The first is generating all the lottery tickets in a single week. Starting Sunday (00:00 hours) and running until 1 hour before the Saturday night lottery drawing, assuming 24x7 operation provides an operating window of 6 days, 23 hours- for a grand total of 167 hours.
Dividing 22,957,480 tickets / 167 hours means 137,470 tickets per hour. Unfamiliar with the maximum sustained printing output of lottery devices, I'll SWAG 1 transaction per second. Then I'll need around 38 ticket devices. Uh-oh - I hadn't included the time it takes to replace the ticket paper (there goes any extra time for sure). I'll need to find 38 Lottery locations (assuming 1 device per retail location).
This is looking totally unfeasible and especially for a loss (albeit tax-deductible) of $16,707,480. OK, after a pretty thorough cut at it, as they say in Dallas "This dog won't hunt". ... AKA FUBAR. Next option, I'll buy a $1 ticket and pick a combination that may win.
Hmm, recognizing that I have 1 chance out of 22,957,480 combinations I'll go for it! But if I believe that I can pick one good number out of that many different combinations I have to believe that Irma in Boca can too! So to maximize my return for another $1, I can buy two of the same combo. That way, if Irma also buys the other winning ticket I will get 2/3 of the jackpot and she will get the other 1/3. But hey, what if a gang of college students in Winter Park (WPGang) scrape together enough change to buy another $1 ticket and pick my combo?
Odds of picking a winner are: 1/ 22,957,480 = 4.3558787811205759517159548870346 x 10-8. Regardless of how big the pot is, these odds remain the same. But just to make sure I get the lion's share of the booty, I should probably buy three $1 tickets of my winning combo, just in case. Besides it's only $2 more and at least this week I can get 9/10 of a gallon of gasoline for two semoleans! I'll just drive a few less miles this week to cover my "jackpot insurance."
Now the odds are stacked in my favor over the other two winners!
-If three pick the winner, I get 3/5 of the pot they get 1/5 each.
-If two pick the winner, I get ¾ (75%) of the pot Irma gets ¼ (25%).
-If only I pick the winner I'll get 100% of the pot! Not bad for a dollar and not having 9/10 of a gallon of gas!
It appears that if I can believe in winning the lottery then I might be able to believe in the Tooth Fairy, Easter Bunny, Santa Claus or even fossil fuels will last forever (or at least through my lifetime).
Yeah that's it -- this week I'm playing the lottery...