As we settle into the fall semester, students and faculty remain aware and alert to the Atlantic hurricane season. Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs from June 1 to November 30, with September 10 serving as the peak. So far, there have been six named storms, and predictions suggest that there will be more to come; according to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 60 percent chance of this being an above-normal season. Within this hurricane season, NOAA predicts 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes. For reference, based on the hurricane seasons from 1991-2020, the average hurricane season in the Atlantic has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
Why this rise in tropical activity?
Though many factors contribute, shifting temperatures and weather patterns play a large role in this heightened storm activity. Between 1901 and 2023, sea surface temperatures rose at a rate of 0.14% per decade, with 2023 being the warmest year ever recorded. Another factor is El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is composed of El Niño and La Niña, two phases that affect the wind shear that hits the Atlantic. El Niño brings a strong wind shear, which often prevents hurricanes from forming; conversely, during La Niña, when wind shear is weak, hurricane formation is more likely. Currently, we are in a neutral ENSO season, which means the hurricane season can be either active or inactive, depending on localized conditions.
To stay prepared during this hurricane season, students can review the email sent by Dean of Students Leon Hayner on July 15. Students can review their hurricane plans to determine where they will stay in the event of a campus evacuation. They can also review the resources linked in this email, which include the City of Orlando’s video on building an emergency tool kit and the Rollins page for emergency updates.
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