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Op-Ed: What Comes Next: The Future of the Middle East After the Ceasefire 

Graphic by Karina Ekholm

On Oct. 7, 2023, after years of rising tension, militants from the terrorist group Hamas launched an attack against southern Israel resulting in the death of more than a thousand Israeli citizens. What followed was an invasion by the Israeli military with the goal of eradicating Hamas, but it turned into a genocide—as defined by the South African government—of the Palestinian people. 

Fifteen months later, on Jan. 19, 2025, a ceasefire (defined by Merriam-Webster as “a military order to cease firing and a suspension of active hostilities”) was signed between Israel and Hamas, and a week later, on January 27, Palestinians refugees finally began to return home as Hamas began to release Israeli hostages in return. 

The question that remains to be answered though is, what comes next? 

Since Israel’s recognition as a state in 1948, following the partition of the region into an Arab state and Jewish state by the United Nations as an attempt to prevent violence from occurring, the Middle East region has been at war with each nation declaring their right to own and live in the land. In 1967, Israel declared war against Egypt, Syria, and Jordan, taking the Palestinian land in Gaza and the West Bank—some of which they still claim even after years of peace talks. 

The Six-Day War, as it is known, changed the climate of the Middle East, with Palestine retaining a tiny strip of land along the Mediterranean—Gaza—and the West Bank, located along the Jordan border. Since then, Israel has refused to recognize the rights of Palestinians, particularly their right to live independently within the borders of Gaza and the West Bank, arguing among unbased claims that the creation of an independent Palestinian state would threaten the security of Israel. 

As of May 2024, 143 out of 193 members of the United Nations recognize Palestine as an independent state.  

Even with an established ceasefire, the climate remains unstable. Israel refused to allow Palestinians back into Gaza until January 27, two days later than they had first promised, blaming Hamas for violating the terms of the ceasefire. 

Following the release of four Israeli hostages by Hamas over January 25 and 26Israel began to allow Palestinian refugees to return home, with close to 300,000 residents crossing through Egypt back into Gaza. 

For the residents of Gaza, they are returning for the first time in over a year to discover their homes in ruins—Israeli soldiers controversially bombed both residential locations, leveling the major cities in Gaza, most namely Rafah, to rubble. 

While changes to foreign politics across the globe may threaten the stability of the ceasefire—most recognizably the election of Donald Trump who has previously said he would support Israel and the eradication of the Palestine state—attention now turns to helping Palestinian citizens return, recover, and rebuild. 

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